If you repress this fact, you can't even realistically analyze what is happening in Iraq right now. As the conditions worsen the common wisdom is that a civil war has erupted between the Shiites and the Sunnis and the Americans find themselves caught in the middle. It would be more precise to view the conflict in Iraq as a fight over the oil reserves in the ground and the United States is one of the factions fighting over the oil along with the Shiites and the Sunnis.
How can I justify such an accusation?
Iraqi oil was nationalized in 1972. This meant that Iraq was entitled to all of the profits for each barrel of oil that came out of the ground. Outside corporate interests were virtually limited to the role of being contractors building providing oil services. Even under the oil for food program it was still Iraqi oil. The war has changed all of this, at least in theory.
The new model for dealing with Iraqi oil and foreign interests uses what are called profit sharing agreements, or PSAs. The agreements being hammered out last for as long as 30 or 40 years and share profits with outside corporate interests well beyond international norms. At least they would, if Iraq ever becomes safe enough for these corporate interests to venture into Iraq. It's a round about way of defacto oil privatization that is probably doomed to fail with the rest of the war effort.
But that brings me to the last point. When you lose a war, you don't get to define the terms of defeat. These PSAs will go the way of the Maliki government after the last helicopter leaves the green zone. A more properly defined civil war will ensue at that point without the presence of an occupying force. The oil will most likely be nationalized once again with the French, Germans and Russians providing the oil services to the emerging Iraqi Theocracy and the united states licking its wounds.
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